With March Madness less than three weeks away, teams are scrambling to boost their RPI and make that final push off of the bubble and into the field of 68.
In no conference is that late-season mayhem more apparent than the Pac-12, where virtually no team is safe and NCAA Tournament futures are far from certain. Here’s a look at the conference’s tournament hopefuls and their chances of impressing the selection committee enough to earn a bid to the big dance:
California
(22-6, 12-3 Pac-12)
The Golden Bears have been rock solid and, barring a collapse, are a lock for the field of 68. Even if Cal goes 2-1 against Utah, Colorado and Stanford and wins a game or two in the Pac-12 Tournament, Jorge Gutierrez and company will still be dancing in March.
RPI: 30
Strength of schedule: 85
Best win: 69-66 at Washington
Worst loss: 92-85 at Oregon State
Best loss: 64-63 at San Diego State
Next three: at Utah, at Colorado, at Stanford
Lunardi’s pick: 9-seed
Daily Wildcat prediction: 8-seed
Washington
(19-8, 12-3 Pac-12)
Washington is the conference’s most talented team, and that talent is translating into wins. The Huskies have won eight of their last nine games and seem poised for a 9- or 10-seed if they can handle Washington State, USC and UCLA.
_RPI: 57
Strength of schedule: 74
Best win: 69-67 at Arizona
Worst loss: 92-73 vs. South Dakota State
Best loss: 86-80 vs. Duke
Next three: at Washington State, at USC, at UCLA
Lunardi’s pick: 11-seed
DW prediction: 9-seed
Arizona
(19-9, 10-5 Pac-12)
This is where the tournament picture gets murky. Arizona, Oregon and Colorado all have a case for that third, and most likely final, NCAA Tournament bid. But while the Ducks and Buffs have each racked up a win against the Wildcats, Arizona’s tough non-conference schedule, productive losses and road victory against Cal put it over the top.
The Wildcats have only lost one game by more than 10 points. Arizona has arguably the easiest remaining schedule of any team. If the Wildcats can take care of the Trojans, Bruins and Sun Devils and win two games in the Pac-12 Tournament, it should be the third and final Pac-12 team to go dancing in March.
RPI: 66
Strength of schedule: 96
Best win: 78-74 at Cal
Worst loss: 59-57 vs. Oregon
Best loss: 78-72 OT at Florida
Next three: vs. USC, vs. UCLA, at ASU
Lunardi’s pick: 12-seed
DW prediction: 12-seed, play-in game
Oregon
(19-8, 10-5 Pac-12)
Between its RPI of 56, blowout victory at Washington and gutsy road win at Arizona, Oregon could trump the Wildcats and get in the tournament. But unlike Arizona, the Ducks fell to Cal twice and Oregon State at home. The Ducks’ inability to take down Cal combined with their tough remaining schedule will leave them on the outside looking in. If there is a fourth team from the Pac-12, however, Oregon is it.
RPI: 56
Strength of schedule: 75
Best win: 82-57 at Washington
Worst loss: 76-71 vs. Oregon State
Best loss: 86-83 at Cal
Next three: at Oregon State, vs. Colorado, vs. Utah
Lunardi’s pick: First four out
DW prediction: First four out
Colorado (18-8, 10-4 Pac-12)
CU had a great chance of avenging last year’s snub and earning a bid until a 71-57 loss at Arizona put the Buffs behind the 8-ball. Colorado’s resume is right on par with Arizona and Oregon’s, aside from its weak RPI and SOS.
RPI: 75
Strength of schedule: 127
Best win: 87-69 vs. Washington
Worst loss: 84-64 at Stanford
Best loss: 67-58 vs. Wichita State
Next three: vs. Stanford, vs. Cal, at Oregon
Lunardi’s pick: Out
DW prediction: Out
