The University of Arizona football team (2-0) will continue its opening homestand with a clash against Kansas State University (1-2) on Friday, Sept. 12, at Arizona Stadium. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. on FOX.
Though both programs are Big 12 members, this meeting will not count in the league standings. Arizona leads the all-time series 5-2-1; however, Kansas State won last year’s matchup in Manhattan, Kansas, 31-7.
Kansas State so far
Kansas State is coming off a 24-21 home loss to Army West Point that hinged on extreme possession disparity: the Kansas State Wildcats ran just 43 plays to Army’s 82 and had the ball for barely 3 minutes in the second half. Even so, quarterback Avery Johnson continued a productive start to this year, entering Friday 64-of-98 (65.3%) for 763 yards and 6 touchdowns across three games, including a 318-yard, three-score outing against North Dakota earlier this season. Purdue transfer Jaron Tibbs has emerged opposite Jayce Brown in the receiving corps, but the offense has struggled to sustain drives. Defensively, Kansas State has allowed only 3.1 yards per rush on the year and piled up 20 tackles for loss and seven sacks through three games, yet fourth-down defense faltered against Army which converted six of seven attempts. With a short week and a road trip, fatigue and situational defense are key concerns.
Arizona so far
Arizona throttled Weber State 48-3 after opening with a 40-6 win over the University of Hawaii at Mano, and the defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year. Danny Gonzales’ unit has produced seven takeaways in two games, over 10 tackles for loss in the opener and a pick-six last week from Jay’Vion Cole. Offensively, Noah Fifita exploded against Weber State with 373 yards and 5 touchdowns after a balanced, run-first debut that featured 183 rushing yards against Hawaii. New playmakers continue to surface, with Javin Whatley scoring on an 85-yard touchdown reception and transfers Ismail Mahdi and Quincy Craig providing punch in the ground game. The next step is improving third-down efficiency and building timing with a retooled wide receiver group before Big 12 play heats up.
Keys to the Game
For Kansas State, controlling possession will be critical after the Army loss exposed its inability to keep the defense off the field. Sustaining early drives with Johnson’s quick passing game and Dylan Edwards on the ground could neutralize Arizona’s front. On defense, Kansas State must tighten up on third and fourth down after allowing Army to convert at will, and their secondary has to contain Arizona’s vertical threats to avoid another barrage of explosive plays.
For Arizona, the priority is continuing to build chemistry in the passing game while maintaining balance on offense. Fifita was sharp last week, but consistency on third down remains a question mark. If he stays in rhythm with Whatley and the transfer receivers, Arizona’s offense can put pressure on K-State’s defense early. On the other side, the Wildcats’ defense should look to create long-yardage situations for Johnson, where their pass rush and opportunistic secondary could extend the team’s nation-leading turnover margin.
Prediction Arizona’s defensive momentum, Noah Fifita’s improving command of the offense and the advantage of playing at home put the Wildcats in a strong position heading into Friday night. However, Kansas State is far better than its 1-2 record suggests, and with two early losses already on the board, this matchup has the feel of a must-win if they hope to remain in playoff contention. Expect K-State to approach the game with urgency, treating it like a win-or-go-home scenario. Quarterback Johnson will be at the center of that effort, delivering his best performance of the season while using both his arm and his legs to create mismatches against Arizona’s defense. While Arizona’s defense has looked sharp through two games, this is by far the most talented and complete team it has faced, and Johnson’s ability to extend plays on the ground could tilt the game in Kansas State’s favor.
Prediction: Kansas State 34 – Arizona 27
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