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The Daily Wildcat

The Daily Wildcat


Presidential race 2016: Who’s left

Rebecca Noble

Real estate mogul and Presidential candidate Donald J Trump (R) speaks to a large crowd in Mesa, Arizona on Dec. 16, 2015 during the Republican primary race.

Winter Break Update:

Over the past month, the race for the White House has entered a new phase as many early-state primary voters are beginning to pay serious attention to the candidates.

With only 18 days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, and 28 days until the New Hampshire primary, the media frenzy surrounding the candidates has only grown stronger.

While the fortunes of Republican candidates, like retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, have floundered in the past weeks those of Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have continued to rise.

In addition, over the past weeks, candidates Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and former New York Governor George Pataki (R), have dropped out of the presidential race after struggling to gain traction.

For the rest of the Republican field the national frontrunner continues to be Donald Trump as he maintains a strong lead nationally and holds the lead by a large margin in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire.

In the latest Real Clear Politics national average amongst Republican primary voters, Trump continues to lead the field with 35 percent of the vote while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz remains in second place at 19 percent.

With voting starting in Iowa in less than three weeks it appears likely that it will become a two-way race between Trump and Cruz as many recent polls have shown both men exchanging narrow leads in the state.

One more debate remains for the Republicans until voting begins in Iowa. The next debate will take place Jan. 28, and will be hosted by the Fox Business Network live from Des Moines, Iowa.

For the Democrats the frontrunner continues to be former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who captures nearly half of national Democratic primary support with a 48.3 percent average according to Real Clear Politics.

Her nearest challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, trails Mrs. Clinton nationally by roughly 8.6 percentage points but has gained ground in critical early voting states such as New Hampshire where he currently has a 6.2 point lead.

One more debate remains for the Democratic candidates before the Iowa caucus, and it will be held this Sunday January 17th by NBC News and will also be held in Charleston, South Carolina.

Remaining Republican Candidates:

Donald Trump

– Continues to be the national frontrunner and is poised for success within the early voting states of New Hampshire and South Carolina where his leads are significant.

Ted Cruz

– Is close behind Donald Trump in Iowa in what is looking like a very competitive early state race between the two men. He is well-prepared to carry any potential Iowa momentum into Super-Tuesday states where he has spent significant time and has invested many resources.

Marco Rubio

– Trails Trump in New Hampshire and will have to continue to fend off challenges from other establishment-type candidates such as Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush who are also heavily invested in New Hampshire.

Ben Carson

– Has fallen dramatically in both national polls and in Iowa where he has fallen by nearly twenty points over the course of a couple months. Will need to rebound significantly to regain his lost momentum.

Chris Christie

– Surging in New Hampshire where competition between himself, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush has created a bottleneck amongst these men who are vying for the role of the traditional Republican establishment-type candidate.

Jeb Bush

– Has spent the most money (between his campaign and Super PAC) of any candidate but has started to focus most of his resources in New Hampshire where he will have to succeed in order to gain his lost momentum as the once frontrunner.

Rand Paul

– Failed to qualify for the main-stage at the Fox Business Debate in South Carolina but is still heavily campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire in an effort to gain some traction in the race.

Carly Fiorina

– Has performed well in the primetime debates but has struggled to build upon that momentum in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

John Kasich

– Is very much in the race for New Hampshire as he has seen a recent rise in the polls. He has spent significant resources in the state and has campaigned there heavily in hopes of getting an early state win.

Mike Huckabee

– The 2008 winner of the Iowa caucuses and a strong social conservative has failed to win over the voters of Iowa thus far and will likely need a tremendous comeback in the state to have a chance in the race.

Rick Santorum

– The most recent winner of the Iowa caucus has also struggled to resonate with voters this time around and would likely need to see tremendous gains there in order to build momentum.

Democratic Candidates:

Hillary Clinton

– The national frontrunner maintains a significant lead among Democrats but could be in trouble if challenger Bernie Sanders is able to get early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bernie Sanders

– Has seen a surge in New Hampshire where he has retaken the lead from Mrs. Clinton and in Iowa where he trails by roughly four percentage points with less than three weeks until voting begins.

Martin O’Malley

– Has struggled to gain momentum in the race with less than three percent nationally and will need to quickly gain traction in the early states in order to have a chance in the race.

Follow Sebastian Laguna on Twitter.

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