On Selection Sunday, March 16, the infamous March Madness tournament begins when the official bracket gets released, and the University of Arizona men’s basketball team looks like they’ll go another year without a national championship. 

Men’s March Madness is a tournament that an entire month is dedicated to, containing 68 teams and one winner. A tournament where anything can happen. A president’s pick for winning the whole thing can go out in round one to an Ivy League. The same tournament where an 11th seed can make it all the way to the final four. 

It’s a tournament known for its unpredictability. Yet that’s exactly what people try to do. According to the NCAA, between 60 and 100 million NCAA March Madness brackets are filled out each year, all trying to predict who will win and who will lose. 

Here’s my prediction for our men’s team: The men’s basketball team will not make it past the Sweet 16.

With a record of 20-11, third in the Big 12, Arizona’s men’s basketball team is sitting at a fifth or sixth seed in recent bracket predictions.. 

In our last three seasons, we’ve been ranked the first or second seed, due to good seasons and winning the Pac-12 Championship. But now we’re in the Big 12 conference with new faces and some old ones and we have not done as well as expected. Close games that shouldn’t be close, lost games that shouldn’t be lost, mistakes over and over.

We started the regular season a little rocky. Between the first nine games, the team had five wins and four losses with major losses to No. 12 Duke University and the University of Wisconsin. This didn’t resemble the notorious Arizona team that is typically seen as a contender year after year.

Then it happened. The Wildcats went on a seven-game win streak. The season was looking brighter, confidence was high and hopes for the championship soared. But everything came crashing down with a crushing loss to Texas Tech University 74-50, a bitter conference blow. The lopsided score exposed a harsh reality: the team still wasn’t equipped to hang with the Big 12’s elite.

But like any strong team, the Wildcats shook off the loss and hit the court running, securing key conference wins against Oklahoma State University, the University of Colorado, No. 3 Iowa State University, ASU, BYU and Texas Tech. It made me start to think that maybe the first defeat was just an anomaly and that I’d been too quick to judge. Maybe, just maybe, there was still hope for a strong Arizona run in the March Madness Tournament.

It was like Cinderella at midnight — everything seemed perfect until the clock struck, and in an instant, the magic unraveled. The Wildcats then endured brutal losses to Kansas State University and conference leader No. 6 University of Houston, shattering their momentum.

Reality was starting to set in. Could this team actually make a deep run in March? Were they consistent enough to compete at the highest level when it mattered most? Could they handle the pressure of the big stage? Would they be able to bounce back from setbacks or would they fold under the intensity? And, most importantly, did they have what it took to outlast the competition when every game was a battle for survival? Doubts began to creep in as these questions swirled around, leaving everyone wondering if the Wildcats could rise to the challenge.

In our recent games, we suffered a defeat to BYU, an unranked team, before securing a win against the University of Utah, another unranked opponent. However, the team’s struggles continued with a loss to No. 9 Iowa State. This marked the team’s 10th defeat of the regular season, a crushing blow that set a new record for the most regular season losses in the Tommy Lloyd era. 

Despite these setbacks, Arizona rebounded strongly, finishing the regular season on a high note with a 113-100 victory over ASU. They defeated their rivals on home court, entering postseason play with a much-needed win, a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. 

So while it’s easy to dwell on the struggles and inconsistencies that have defined their season, it’s essential to recognize that there are still factors working in the Wildcats’ favor that could set the stage for a strong postseason run. 

Over the past four years, head coach Tommy Lloyd’s teams have consistently secured top 2 seeds in the tournament. But perhaps this year, not being in the top spot will be the spark Arizona needs to push even further. 

As the old saying goes, “Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern.” They’ve already broken the pattern. The real question now is: What happens next?

After the ASU victory, Lloyd acknowledged the team’s strong offensive performance but emphasized the need for improvement on defense in his post-game press conference. 

“I’m proud of the way we played offensively, obviously we want to play better defensively, and starting tomorrow, as a staff, we’ll unemotionally figure out what we got to do to get better defensively,” Lloyd said. 

With a renewed focus on improving their defense, Arizona could gain the edge they need as they head into the postseason. Currently, the NCAA predictive bracket has them on the South side, where they’ll face 13-seed University of Tennessee, Chattanooga in their first game. If they advance, they’ll likely meet the winner of the 3-seed Clemson University and the 12-seed, which could be either University of Nebraska or Arkansas.

With both Arizona and Clemson favored in their matchups, a second-round rematch between the two is likely. In the 2023-2024 tournament, Clemson eliminated Arizona from the Sweet Sixteen with a 77-72 victory. 

This season, Arizona’s defense has worsened, now allowing 72.5 points per game compared to 72.1 last year, which could be a major concern in a potential rematch. However, Arizona’s offense remains a strength, averaging 82.3 points per game. If they can tighten up defensively and capitalize on their offensive firepower, they still have a shot at outscoring Clemson. The motivation to avenge last year’s loss could further fuel their drive in this high-stakes game.

If Arizona defeats Clemson, they are likely to face the 3-seed St. John’s University, a team renowned for its tough defense. St. John’s is skilled at limiting opponents’ scoring, which could pose a significant challenge for Arizona’s high-powered offense, especially given their already vulnerable defense. With these factors in mind, it’s hard to see Arizona advancing past this round. 

Now with all that said I truly hope I’m wrong. While the team’s talent and heart are undeniable, defensive struggles and tough matchups ahead make it hard not to be skeptical. The road to the Sweet 16 feels uphill, and Arizona will need to tighten up defensively while maintaining their offense. It’s a tough journey, much like Cinderella’s, but maybe — just maybe — they’ll find their glass slipper when it matters most. 

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Sarah Arellano is a junior at the University of Arizona studying Journalism and Law. When she is not reporting, she likes to read all sorts of books.